Global oil demand is projected to reach 116 million barrels per day in 2045, an increase of 16 million barrels per day compared to last year. According to the 2023 World Oil Outlook Report, which includes medium and long-term forecasts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding the global economy, energy and oil demand supply until 2045, global primary oil production was at the level of 291 million barrels of oil equivalent per day last year. Energy demand is expected to reach 359 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2045, with an increase of 68.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (23 percent).
On a resource basis, demand for all primary fuels except coal is expected to increase in the long term due to energy policies and climate commitments. The strongest growth in this period is expected to be experienced in other renewable energy sources, especially wind and solar, with an increase of 34.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, due to strong policy support in many regions. Other renewable energy sources, whose share in the global energy mix was approximately 2.7 percent last year, are estimated to have a share of 11.7 percent in 2045.
The Largest Share In The Energy Mix Will Be Oil
According to the report, strong growth in global oil demand is expected. It is predicted that oil will hold the largest share in the global energy mix with 29.5 percent by 2045. It is estimated that global natural gas demand will increase by 20 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to 87 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2045. The share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix is expected to decrease from 80 percent in 2022 to 69 percent in 2045, due to the decline in coal demand. In the same period, the total share of oil and gas in the energy mix is estimated to remain at 54 percent.
Oil Demand Will Shrink In The Long Term In The OECD Area
According to the report, global oil demand is expected to reach 110.2 million barrels per day in 2028, an increase of 10.6 million barrels per day compared to last year. While the demand in non-OECD countries is expected to increase by 10.1 million barrels per day to 63.7 million barrels per day in 2028, the demand in OECD countries is estimated to increase by approximately 500 thousand barrels per day in the medium term.
In the long term, global oil demand is expected to reach 116 million barrels per day in 2045, an increase of more than 16 million barrels per day compared to last year. While it is calculated that the demand in non-OECD countries will increase by approximately 26 million barrels per day in the 2022-2045 period, a contraction of approximately 9.3 million barrels per day is predicted in OECD countries.
India Will Lead The Growth In Oil Demand
According to the report, it is estimated that the biggest contribution to the increase in non-OECD oil demand will come from India. While an increase of 6.6 million barrels per day is expected in India during the said period, demand is expected to increase by 4.6 million barrels per day in other Asian countries, 4 million barrels per day in China, 3.8 million barrels per day in Africa and 3 barrels per day in the Middle East. It is estimated that it will increase by 6 million barrels.